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If Greece came out of the euro area, the country would enter into an inextricable chaos. It would not be alone in suffering: the countries of the euro area would lose the billions they have loaned him since 2010 for the shoot of the rut. Indeed, Athens would reimburse probably not what it owes them. In this hypothesis, the two largest economies in the region, Germany and France would lose the most.

If Greece were to fail in mid-June, the French government should write off 50 billion "net," said the outgoing Minister of Economy Baroin. According to calculations of Figaro.fr, this amount could rise to 58.5 billion euros. This is 895 euros per French, or almost 3% of what the country produces in a year. Germany would lose directly, as calculated by the magazine Wirtschaft Woche, 76.6 billion euros and all the European institutions, nearly 302 billion euros, according to figures released by the rating agency Fitch.

Concerning France, the amount includes bilateral loans in the forefront of European aid (11.4 billion between 2010 and 2011). What must be added the participation of France in the second program, launched in early 2012, 15 billion euros granted through the firewall European, that is to say, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The whole is 26.4 billion euros of direct exposure of France to Greece.

In addition to these funds, France should meet, at least in part, the losses suffered by the European Central Bank (ECB) under its importance within the euro area. At the height of the crisis, the guardian of the single currency has indeed bought in the markets for 40 billion euros of Greek debt, according to Fitch payday advance lender. If Athens were to fail, the ECB should say goodbye to that amount. France would then bail out of 8.9 billion euros. The same mechanism, it may have to recapitalize the International Monetary Fund (1.6 billion euros).

The bill gets heavier over time

More indirectly, France may have to refinance the network of central banks in the euro area, again according to its economic importance, either to the tune of 22.2 billion euros (calculated by Fitch). Indeed, the Greek central bank has accumulated 106 billion of financial compensation to its European counterparts, according to the rating agency.

The slate of the Greek state vis-à-vis France stretches over months, while assistance payments keep coming. Suddenly, one observer, "more a Greek bankruptcy would occur later, the more it would be costly to its partners." The EFSF must still pay 75.9 billion euros by 2014, the International Monetary 28.2 billion euros, according to calculations by analysts of the bank Credit Suisse. If Greece is in the euro area, it will begin to repay the loans from France and other partners from 2020 … and over a period of between 20 and 30.

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Full financial and economic crisis, Spain will nationalize Bankia, the fourth largest bank, formed by the merger of seven Spanish savings banks in December 2010. The information, released Wednesday by the newspaper El Pais and ABC, has been confirmed in the evening by the Ministry of Economy. This indicated that the government would take 45% stake in banking group, which would make the majority shareholder. "The nominal value of these investments amounts to 4.465 billion euros," the ministry said in a statement. The money would come from public funds to support Spanish banks, the Frob, founded in 2010.

Shortly before this announcement, the Bank of Spain was also confirmed that Bankia had applied its partial nationalization. Announced for several days, this bailout is intended to reassure investors, while the bank accounts are sealed by prime mortgage risk.

The prospect of nationalization of a large Spanish bank, unprecedented in the country since 1992, does not please the markets. On Wednesday, all Spanish banks were sanctioned Exchange: Santander and BBVA have yielded 4.52% and 4.73%, respectively, while Bankia lost 5.84%. Sector In falling throughout the Ibex 35, which closed at a new level since 2003.

A rescue plan Friday

If the measure makes sense in Madrid, Spain is not the first European country to have nationalized its banks since the crisis erupted in 2008. Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Ireland nationalized much of their banking sector. In Ireland, the cost of bank bailout was so high, it has increased the deficit to 32% of GDP, forcing the country to seek IMF assistance and the euro area no fax pay day loans.

In Spain, the nationalization of Bankia a turning point in worrying the banking crisis. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the big Spanish banks such as BBVA and Santander were cited as examples for their strength. The problems came from "cajas" savings banks that invested with a vengeance in real estate. Today, they are more than a dozen sips but risky assets, including 37.5 billion for the only Bankia.

The government has already asked in early February to banks to provision 53 billion a year, is preparing to present a new rescue plan on Friday, the Council of Ministers.

Recapitalization needs of the Spanish banking sector are estimated at EUR 100 billion, while loans amounted to 143.8 billion euros, according to the latest figures from the Bank of Spain.

Unable to refinance when rates soar on debt markets, Spanish banks have no other choice but to call for help from the state. But the government has not the means to save the entire sector, while its deficit already stands at 8.5% of GDP. And he has already committed for 2012 of 47 billion euros saved. Even if it costs him politically, Mariano Rajoy could be forced to go through using the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund).

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Release still stands. While the newspaper has recently published a full page to remember that it won 5.39% of distribution paid France last year, according to OJD, the best performance among the national dailies, all employees, together in civil society personnel Liberation (SCPL), Tuesday signed a letter of genuine grievances against their managing editor and publishing, Nicolas Demorand.

"One year after the arrival of Nicolas Demorand, the graft did not" attack the SCPL, including the editors of Liberation. "The list of grievances is long," continuing employees, evoking by turns being "dispossessed" of the newspaper not to identify with it. They blame their managing editor, former France Inter recruited by Edouard de Rothschild in early 2011 to revitalize the newspaper before the election, not to give clear direction, only to take "no account of what the drafters, they can learn according to their skills and ability to work together. " They say they are despised by a direction described as "authoritarian and arrogant." "Differences of view" would be the source of "confusion as editorial organizationally."

The SCPL editorial criticizes the current, that Nicolas Demorand prints for over a year, "one eye-catching," an "editorial treatment supporter" Libe … yet made the subject of regular times in the press reviews and in social networks for its one noticed, especially when the DSK affair last May or the beginning of the presidential campaign. This "policy Cover" has undoubtedly contributed last year to an increase in newsstand sales (individual sales) of over 10%, nearly 9,000 additional copies.

June 2011, a motion of no confidence was passed by the same SCPL, which already criticized Nicolas Demorand of being "out of step with the culture of the newspaper." The grievances were already numerous.

Nicolas Demorand has not yet responded to these attacks.

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CaixaBank became the largest bank in Spain by total assets. At its 270 billion in assets, "La Caixa", continue to call it like the Spanish, in addition to 72 billion Banca Civica, absorbing the entity resulting from the recent merger of four cajas (savings banks) . Exceeds the group and the two Spanish giants, Santander and BBVA. But size does not balance the economic: the stock market, Santander (54 billion) and BBVA (30 billion) will remain far ahead of their new rival (15 billion after months of reconciliation.)

On the ground, however, Caixa will expand significantly. The network of 1,400 branches and 7,800 employees of Banca Civica will expand the 5000 branches and 25,000 employees that already CaixaBank across the country. Especially in northern Spain and the Canary Islands. The operation occurs just days before the deadline set by the government. Credit institutions must have in effect before March 31, a sustainability plan. In total, banks and cajas must be provisioned 50 billion euros to cover the risk real estate.

The merger movement continues

In the case of Banca Civica, it was found in one year € 2 billion. According to Spanish press, Madrid feared that the bank fails to achieve its own objectives. The government should therefore encouraged to approach CaixaBank Banca Civica cheap payday advance. If integration is achieved, it will be two more years to clean up its accounts. Financial reform adopted in early February was precisely to promote the absorption of entities problematic by the biggest banks.

The merger movement has not yet come to an end in Spain. CatalunyaCaixa, another group that also emerged from an initial burst of mergers, also seeking a partner. Santander and BBVA are in the running.

110 billion injected into the financial sector

Between 2008 and 2012, Spain has injected 110 billion euros in its financial sector. 80 billion in the form of bank guarantees, assumed by the State, and 30 billion in asset purchases and direct payments by the public and the banks themselves. In 2011, the government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has merged the fund deposit guarantees, and has forced banks to take losses in the sector. This policy was pursued by the Conservative government of Mariano Rajoy. "The restructuring will not cost taxpayers one euro," promised the Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos. Large banks, however, require the government to participate in the national effort.

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Five employees of the ferry company SeaFrance, liquidated on January 9, were indicted on Thursday for "theft by an organized" and "breach of trust", a judicial source said. Six men in all had been placed in custody at Portel (Pas-de-Calais) Tuesday. One of them was left open, and five others were brought before a judge Thursday afternoon before being indicted.

Justice investigation into reality since April 2010 about alleged fraud on sales on board ships. The prosecutor of Boulogne-sur-Mer has opened a preliminary investigation following a complaint from the management, the auditor has identified numerous "gaps" and "errors" in accounting for sales on board ships. An audit is a shortage then estimated at 3 million euros per year. According to a source familiar with the matter, the damage would amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

A technique known in the restaurant industry

The "scratch" has always existed on the way: at the time when the duty-free still existed, smuggling of cigarettes, alcohol duty-free perfumes or thrived, public knowledge, with the approval of marine accomplices. The fraud continued afterwards. The code of silence about these illegal practices has gradually cracked along with the company came close to bankruptcy free credit report and score.

Of the five defendants for "forgery and uttering false", "breach of trust", "theft by an organized" and "concealment", three bartenders and a "supervisor" employees of the company, potential followers of the "casting ", a technique known in the restaurant industry of keeping-roll by itself a part of the goods intended to be sold at the bar, liquor and food. "In this case, the casting had particularly large proportions," says a close case.

Substantial gains

The two leaders of the CFDT union SeaFrance, Didier Cappelle, the secretary of the Maritime Union North, and Eric Vercoutre, secretary of the company are not part of the team presented to the judge Thursday.  

Occurred in police custody this week, however, are the first since the start of the investigation and should announce further in the coming weeks. In this case, the union house is believed to have covered the traffic, which would have allowed some sailors to take substantial gains.

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Apple will host a conference March 7 in San Francisco at 19 am, French time. Program, the announcement of the new iPad, whose invitation to deliver the first image appears.

As every year, rumors are rife about the specifications and new features in Apple's tablet, which should be examined with interest by its competitors.

Two years after the release of the first version, the iPad indeed still dominates the market with 50 million sales, all models, against 12 million Android tablets, and is a reference to the sector payday loans guaranteed no fax.

The new iPad should propose an improved screen, displaying four times as many pixels on the same surface, but could also integrate Siri and why not, be accompanied by an iPad Mini, smaller. This graphic provides an update on the major rumors, according to their reliability.

LE FIGARO. – What do you think of the proposal of François Hollande to fight against the dismantling of French companies?

Jerome Chartier. – I think she will have three effects: be an accelerator of deindustrialization, insofar as an investor does not take the risk now to resume or expand a business in France for fear of not being free to to act. Francois Hollande first puts the brakes, then it must instead press the accelerator. It expresses all the difference between the administered economy, which it promotes, and regulated the economy, which is the one that defends Nicolas Sarkozy. The second effect is the return of any power of attorney of the Commercial Court which, in the early Mitterrand, had helped to give up half of French industry in symbolic franc. And again, it had never prevented or layoffs or the dismantling. Finally, and this is the third effect, this proposal is an absolute breach of property rights remains one of the founding principles of the Republican base.

Nevertheless, 800,000 industrial jobs were lost in France in ten years

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These numbers are for the period 1998-2008. The dates are important because they correspond to the vote and the implementation of laws 35 hours. Malthusian principle was actually an accelerator relocations to the extent that, when you can not do enough work your employees in France to address the backlog, you produce elsewhere. Since 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy has stepped up to reindustrialise France. In its report released Friday, the OECD also welcome the research tax credit, the elimination of business tax and the status of the freelancer as good structural measures.

VAT can social relaunch "produce in France"?

Yes, it serves to finance a decrease of 12.12% in payroll taxes, but we will continue to do so to produce the same cost or cheaper than our competitors, Germany and Italy, and not China or India as would have us believe the French Francois Hollande.

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Galeries Lafayette and Casino are at war over control and recovery of Monoprix, they each own half the capital. Philippe Houze, president of Galeries Lafayette and Monoprix, explains for the first time its views on the subject.

LE FIGARO. – Why have you started the process of selling your stake in Monoprix?

Philippe Houzé. – In March 2011, I proposed Casino to renew our partnership for three years. After my numerous reminders, the group let me know the end of September it could grant me one more year. This proposal is a totally inappropriate. I realized that Casino wanted to settle in Monoprix and consolidate the company to 100% in its accounts, without paying the price. Our group can not agree to see and leave the company he founded and directed the last eighty years. If he wishes to take control, Casino has a purchase option at the price of expertise together with a control premium of 21%. He does not want to exercise it. Under these conditions, we have to consider the sale, but the evaluation not be taken as the exercise of our put option.

How do you explain that your participation Casino evaluates to 700 million euros, when you consider it to 1.95 billion?

Our estimate is based on the uniqueness of Monoprix. Fifteen times Ebitda, is the acquisition value of the Dutch Hema, the company that has the profile most similar to ours. Our multiple is only 11. As for the valuation of Monoprix Casino, it is very worrying. It is based on a McKinsey report that completely destroys Monoprix saying the group is not equipped to cope with the arrival of supermarkets in the city center and the emergence of e-commerce and its textile business not resist. If Casino do believe that Monoprix is ​​only five times its EBITDA, it leaves me president, I will continue to ensure value creation for shareholders.

Why did you refuse to pass on to Jean-Charles Naouri President of Monoprix?

Wednesday, Casino changed the course of the Board in order to begin, less than an hour later, a communication sequence cleverly orchestrated. In fact, Casino resulted in not being able to present a candidate for President of Monoprix and so was fatal to any other solution than my renewal.

But if Jean-Charles Naouri was a candidate, you would have refused

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Can you imagine the Galeries Lafayette to accept the head of Monoprix a president who does not believe in the future of the company and who would have all the means to redeem us to devalue our participation at lower price?

Is divorce inevitable?

The attitude of Casino reinforces our idea that it is impossible to continue with a partner in total conflict, which promotes an MTP totally degraded. At the annual meeting of its branch patterns, Casino asked the Deputy CEO of Monoprix not to present his strategic plan, though approved by Jean-Charles Naouri … The current situation is not feasible in the long run. It is damaging to Monoprix, its customers and employees. This conflict affects a major Monoprix and its 20,000 employees fully dedicated to the company. If Jean-Charles Naouri does not accept the values ​​and philosophy of Monoprix, does not comply with the specificity of this format, the company will not resist.

Are you ready to negotiate?

We do not seek to negotiate. We want to return to legality, that is to say, enforce the protocol and allow JP Morgan to evaluate independently Monoprix. Casino tries to block this process. I was reappointed for one year as President of Monoprix. The statutes allow me to be extended four more times. I assume all my functions. Our goal is that Monoprix is ​​run by people who believe in the company, its officers, its values, and are determined to make it succeed. Casino will not, by devious means, take control of Monoprix, because the company would be hostile.

Are you still willing to buy out Casino in Monoprix?

Wednesday, Galeries Lafayette reiterated their offer on Feb. 10 at Casino redeem its share to 1.35 billion euros. I'm surprised that this proposal was not presented to the Board of Casino, I'm a member and including Galeries Lafayette are the third largest shareholder. Jean-Charles Naouri assured me that the offer would be discussed at council Monday. We have the means to finance the offer, if accepted.

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The report by the Center for Strategic Analysis in a housing report released Wednesday is brutal: while the subject of aid mobilizes huge (37 billion euros) from the State and local governments, households the less fortunate spend more on housing. In 2005, they spent at this position 41.4% of their income against 25% in 1988.

To improve the situation of more modest in this area, the Center for Strategic Analysis made several proposals, focused on social housing. "First, it should be that only those who earn more than five times the annual rent for a dwelling may be candidates for living," Chriqui advance Vincent, general manager of that agency of the Prime Minister. A measure of common sense would settle with the current situation today, up 64% of households are eligible for public housing.

To reserve social housing for disadvantaged populations, some only dream of being able to expel those whose income has become, over time, well above the maximum income. This would call into question the sacrosanct principle of the right to remain in public housing, one of the cornerstones of the world HLM. Cautiously, the Center for Strategic Analysis does not follow that direction.

However, he has worked on a system where the rent paid by tenants would be modulated according to their income. "In fact, rents are nominally higher and tenants would receive a grant that would cover some of this burden, says Vincent Chriqui. The premium will be lowered when the tenant would see its revenues increase. "To avoid creating too strong reactions in a world quite restive HLM changes of this kind, this system would first be tested by some social landlords . If the Center for Strategic Analysis recommends this solution is that the devices require tenants whose incomes exceed the ceilings to pay additional rent malfunctioning. Normally, a public housing tenant whose remuneration exceeds 20% of the maximum income to pay a surloyer. "But it is a cumbersome process that requires to initiate proceedings," said Vincent Chriqui. Soft law passed in 2009 plans to evict a tenant of public housing for two successive years if its resources are at least two times higher than the ceiling. But we must wait three years after this observation that the measure could be effective. Result: more than three years after its adoption, the text has yet to produce any effects.

Statistical tool

Last priority recommendation of the Center for Strategic Analysis: Building a statistical tool that emphasizes respect for each program HLM, level of public support and the "discount" rent in the social housing compared to private apartments around the park. "By learning about government subsidies and the results they deliver, this should help to refocus the production of social housing where the need is greatest," says Vincent Chriqui.

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The figures are record: 101,700 megawatts (MW) consumed by the French at 19 o'clock last night, a record that surpasses the previous day, to 100,500 megawatts. The previous record was 15 December 2010 to 96,710 megawatts. With each new wave of cold correpond a new historic peak of consumption to meet the increased need for hot water and heating.

Why do we save these records, while 2011 saw a decrease of 6.8% of electricity consumption in France? The sensitivity of electricity consumption to cold temperatures has increased over the last decade, the order of 70 MW per year, says the electricity transmission network (RTE), a subsidiary of EDF responsible for network of power lines. In addition, our electro-climate sensitivity is higher than our neighbors to each degree less, Europeans consume more today 5000 MW, of which only 2300 MW in France! In comparison, Britain consumes 600 MW for each degree lost, Germany and Italy 500 MW 300 MW.

This explains why the French electrical consumption was so low in 2011, the warmest year since 1900. Instead, the cold snap earlier this year led to a series of daily records: the scale of temperatures, the geographic scope (on the whole territory) and the duration of this wave creates a phenomenon of "cold accumulating," said Herve Mignon, Director of Economy, Planning and transparency in TEN.

More electric heaters, more devices

The origin of this particular sensitivity to cold in France: electric heating, which team nearly a third of homes and is installed in 80% of units built in 2009, according to the Environment Agency to control Energy (ADEME). "The electric heaters (except models with heat accumulation) contributes to peak electricity consumption observed around 19h," says this on his site. "It's a French specialty, says Francoise Clement, Information Officer at ADEME. We relied on electric heating, which makes us very dependent on climate. "

Easier and cheaper to install than central heating, it is elected by overwhelming in a country where electricity is more abundant than elsewhere. However, it may prove far more expensive to use, especially since many homes are poorly insulated. "The actual search for energy savings is still new in France, Clement says Françoise. We had no temperature control before 1975 and our expertise in high performance homes is still underdeveloped. "Now, the heat losses are significant: 25% to 30% through the roof, 25% by walls and 10% to 15% by windows.

In parallel, the use of electrical appliances has been steadily improving. In the living room consoles, computers and televisions are increasingly hungry for electricity, as well as kitchen equipment, such as coffee makers and electric robots. "The spirit of cocooning" increases in household demand, explains Françoise Clemente: "We like to equip themselves, we want to be like home."

We must add that the growing electricity demand with economic growth and the continued increase in population. In its latest forecast balance, RTE still see electricity consumption to grow by 1.1% by 2015. Then, assuming an improvement in energy efficiency in buildings, consumption could increase by 0.6% per year by 2030.