Chroniclers weather will give heart to joy. Not only it is cold, but with the wind, "the temperatures experienced" are even lower. The fold is taken: we now no longer communicating indications of the thermometer observed "under cover". It highlights the feelings of bystanders facing the wind. This is obviously more spectacular when it's 0 degrees on the thermometer and the wind blows at 10 km / h, the wind chill is – and it falls 3 ° – 5 ° at a speed of 20 km / h.
This phenomenon that scientists call "wind chill" was discovered in 1940 during an expedition in Antarctica by Paul Siple. But it was popularized there about ten years, when the media, first in the U.S. and Canada, and Europe, have provided consistently figures in their weather reports. Note that this is a physical reality, and not merely a psychological representation: the protective layer of warm air generated by the human body itself at 37 °, must be renewed more frequently that the wind is strong. Perception of cold is very real.
In the economic field also, "feel" of households and between bosses increasingly into play. It even tends to become the main instrument for measuring the economic climate, for convenience of calculation. It is indeed much easier to ask a panel of business owners if their production increased last month to collect their sales activity. The latter procedure requires aggregate car sales, kilograms of tomatoes and air tickets, which is long and delicate.
The services of the European Commission and questioned each month 125,000 businesses and 40,000 consumers in 27 countries of the Union, both on past activity and prospects coming months. These results, expressing the sense of economic actors – soft data, in English – are obtained almost instantaneously. They are often considered more accurate than traditional statistical data on quantitative (hard data). In France, INSEE shows real-time views of households on the labor market, while the Ministry of Labour provides a month late with the number of job seekers.
The medal has its reverse, however. Discrepancies may arise between the vox populi and accounting realities. Upon the introduction of euro notes and coins, there are just ten years, European consumers have moved to a surge in consumer prices by 4% to 5%. The European Central Bank held instead that the drift did not exceed two or three tenths of a point of additional inflation. This discrepancy between official figures and their perception of "real people" led to a series of explanations: consumers are more price sensitive in their everyday purchases, such as baguette, which were most affected by the introduction of the euro, etc..
Policymakers are rightly concerned about how households perceive things. Like the eighteenth century Irish philosopher George Berkeley, they are led to believe that "only what is perceived to exist." When soliciting votes public, which is in the minds of voters has truth value.
The French "are tired of the growing gap between statistics that show continuous progress and growing difficulties they experience in their daily lives", had expressed concern in January 2008 Nicolas Sarkozy. And to bridge this gap between men of art and the general public, he asked Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, both Nobel Prize in economics, to think about other ways to measure economic wealth than in the sacrosanct GDP. Responding to this concern to "humanize" economic indicators, and other INSEE national institutes have set up a "personalized price index": everyone can calculate – on the website of INSEE – its own inflation rate based on its expenses.
This is laudable, but it is also paradoxical. "The statistics were invented to go beyond what people can see themselves and are now under attack because they do not reflect what people perceive of reality!" , according to former Chief Statistician of OECD Enrico Giovannini.
Worse, it became impossible to escape the image of ourselves, constantly updated, we see in the mirror figures. Its redundancy – just check out the long list of indicators days pending publication – main function to supply high-frequency stock markets, which are fond. For individuals we are, the velocity of circulation of this information produces exactly the same effect as the wind on our bodies. It forces us to constantly renew the idea that we have of our situation. This can only be rehashing debilitating. Feeling of resentment, there is one syllable, and not just any.
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