Financier, philanthropist, George Soros published by Presses de la Cité The Global Financial Chaos, a book in which he details the relentless chain of events that precipitated the world of the subprime crisis than in the euro area. He shares his solutions for the financial reform and save the single currency.
LE FIGARO. – How do you judge the situation in the euro area?
George Soros. – The crisis is worsening day by day. Politicians have said that it was prematurely terminated, but that is incorrect. The situation is even worse since the beginning of this year certainly intelligent and exceptional measures taken by the ECB has lent € 1,000 billion in three years European banks have helped alleviate these and indirectly support loans States, but they have only to save time. The underlying problems remain. The differences in competitiveness between countries, which have widened when interest rates were converging, remain. Furthermore, the differences between creditor and debtor countries have worsened. One of the most disturbing in the euro area is currently re-nationalization of the debt markets to which we are currently observing. Spanish banks buy debt Spanish and French banks of the French debt, but you see more of French banks to buy Spanish debt. This could potentially blow up the euro. As if we were trying to recreate eggs after making an omelette. It is however not an inevitable process and there is still time to reverse things by taking political decisions really original.
Why?
Europe must establish a real growth policy. We can not escape from a situation of excessive debt just by practicing austerity, because it causes GDP to fall and, ultimately, in nominal terms, the debt burden increases compared to the national wealth. The ultimate risk with too much austerity, it is plunging into a deflationary trap of over-indebtedness, which is the road to disaster. The best way to reduce debt is therefore parallel to the rebalancing of accounts, to maintain GDP growth.
How to sustain this growth? By stimulus measures or structural?
Structural reforms are necessary but not sufficient. We must put money back in growth projects. It is impossible for countries to have exceeded the limits of Maastricht. The only solution is to raise capital throughout Europe.
The rest of the world can he finance this stimulus?
No. If Europe makes the right decisions, they can save themselves only. She has no choice: it is absurd to be financed by the Chinese whose standard of living is one-tenth that of Europeans. How can we ask in these conditions for China to continue to pay our way of life? In addition, we should not always rely on help from the IMF, because the loans from the fund are always compared with other seniors. Mechanically, this degrades the value of other debts contracted by governments and costs more to them, which does not solve the problem of financing the fund. And do not forget that IMF assistance in exchange for drastic savings measures, the country may plunge into a lost decade, as in Latin America of the 1980s.
How can Europe pay her own recovery?
One of the problems of the common currency is that it prevents countries from issuing their own currency and that their obligations are, somehow, in foreign currency. However, we can reverse things a bit, because states have transferred their right of seigniorage – the one to beat the currency – the ECB, which draws 25 billion profit a year. According to independent studies conducted by two economists, Willem Buiter, Citibank, and Huw Piil, Goldman Sachs, the seigniorage represent a capital value from 2000 to 3000 billion euros. We could group them in a special fund to lend to states to finance their raise in exchange for serious budgetary commitments of the latter.
The Germans would they agree to such a policy?
The German people have difficulty understanding why a policy that worked in his case may not necessarily work for all of Europe. Reduce wages and profits to regain competitiveness is an expansionist policy one way he can not play consistently across an entire area. In a closed system, not everyone can be a creditor at the same time. The Bundesbank should understand but it is unfortunately prisoner of his ideology that recognizes the dangers of inflation and prevents him from seeing the risks of deflation. His situation is ambiguous because she feels that the eurozone is threatened. Proof, it is taking steps to limit its losses in case of dissolution of the euro area. This coverage is raising, asking for higher guarantees to other central banks of the Eurosystem in which it lends money, is potentially self-fulfilling.
The euro bonds are they a solution?
I agree with President Sarkozy when he said that the euro bonds may not happen at the end of the process, when better budgetary cooperation is established between the countries.
Bank regulation is necessary?
Yes, more than ever. The crisis is more a banking crisis a fiscal crisis. With the exception of Greece, all other European states experiencing fiscal difficulties have now slipped because of their banks: Ireland has cut its deficit to nationalize its financial institutions and Spain is experiencing tension because its banks suffering from the bursting of the housing bubble.
France can it be attacked by the markets after the second round?
France must prove its ability to quickly boost its economy, taking strong structural measures, but they may not be sufficient. There is a reality in any case in which France can not escape: his difficulties in reforming the place permanently in a weak position against Germany, which is only in charge of Europe at the moment.
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