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The king of the foreign exchange market is losing its supremacy.The dollar, already eroded by the successive plans and massive injections of liquidity into the markets by the Fed to support the economy of the first power of the world crumbles at full speed: everyone sulking the greenback, while the scenario of a failure to pay the United States, powered by the impasse between Democrats and Republicans on increasing the amount of the debt of the federal state could be realized.

If the financial world does not seem to want to believe in a U.S. bankruptcy – the consequences for the global economy would be "very, very, very serious," according to Christine Lagarde at the IMF – is growing concern as the rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's head, threatening more and more seriously degrade the note of the long-term debt of the United States, currently at AAA – the highest rating possible."This fear that the U.S. lowered rating is increasingly based," said Andrea Tueni, market analyst at Saxo Bank. Combined with poor economic data, especially on the face of real estate and employment falling for several weeks across the Atlantic, such news would further loosen the dollar "as investors are less likely to buy bonds U.S. long-term because they are less safe and more expensive, "said the specialist.

The euro could rate to about $ 1.50 without the Greek case

Faced with a dollar that loses value, the other major currencies, they, climbing mechanically. This rise is not seen on the exchange rate euro / dollar as the euro, too, was abused by his sovereign debt issues."The Greek case far from over, the German finance minister has even admitted today that Europe will still have to meet to resolve the European crisis. This weighs on the euro, "argues Andrea Tueni.

So on Wednesday, the euro it suffers more the situation in Europe as the dollar is disadvantaged by the issue of U.S. debt, the euro yield 1% against the dollar at 1.4369 dollar. But yesterday, the euro was trading more than 1.45 dollars, registering an increase of almost 1%. "Right now, the problem Greek counterbalancing about the American problem, so that the euro / dollar remains relatively stable. Without the Greek case, the euro could move above $ 1.45 even reach $ 1.47, "predicts analyst.

The Swiss franc at record high

But for the other major currencies, the effect of the dollar's decline is palpable.Especially for currency called "safe haven" to which those investors are turning in uncertainty and fear when the market gains. As the yen or Swiss francs. Indeed, Japan is concerned that the yen is so strong: for a dollar, you are under 78 yen. Unheard of. In Switzerland, the situation is unprecedented: the Swiss franc is the highest in its history against the dollar, which fell to 0.7996 Swiss francs on Wednesday.

Such inflation of the currencies directly threatens the economies concerned, particularly exporters. In Switzerland, the economic research he expected slower economic growth in Switzerland over the coming months, corroborating the analysis of the ETH Zurich. The prospect of Swiss GDP growth for 2011 was reduced by the Ministry of Economy to 1.5% against 1.9% expected earlier.What revive the theme of the currency war.

Countries react to contain the surge of their currency

A new central bank intervention Swiss and Japanese is possible. How? By buying dollars to turn back the greenback, and therefore, lower than their money. This is precisely what would have done on Wednesday India's central bank, the agency Dow Jones, which is to prevent the rise of the rupee, at its highest in 35 months against the dollar. Other Asian Institutions designated having exercised the same operation in recent days.

Brazil's real has not been as strong since 1999 (at 1.53 reals to the dollar), when the country began to make its currency fluctuate. Since the beginning of the year, the Brazilian currency has appreciated by 8.08% vis-à-vis the dollar.In 2010, the real had appreciated 4.6% against the dollar and 32.7% in 2009 after falling 23.17% in 2008, the year of the global financial crisis. This outbreak is explained partly by the decline of the dollar, but especially the effects of "carry trade" that make the real rising: investors are the difference in interest rates between the United States from 0 to 0.25%, and Brazil, more than 12%. On Wednesday, the Brazilian government announced the strengthening of control and taxes – up to 25% – on the derivatives market. "I think that this measure will be less profitable speculation, and I hope it will bring down the real," said Guido Mantega, Brazilian Minister of Finance.

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On the international trade front, France patina. For the second time in two months, the trade deficit hit a bad record in May, -7.422 billion euros, according to figures released Thursday by the Customs. Year over year, he moved to -63.418 billion euros, against -51.558 billion in 2010.

The poor sales in May due in large part by higher energy bills in France, reflecting a rebound in imports of natural hydrocarbons. Imports, burdened by this trend, amounting to 41.601 billion euros in May, up 2.9% over three months. This figure was moderated by the slowdown of industrial imports.This, "due to lower aircraft and naval acquisitions and a decline in purchases of electronic equipment and pharmaceuticals, 'the customs.

At the same time, "industrial exports sag again," they note. Result, exports grew by only 0.9% over the last three months to reach 34.179 billion euros in May "The persistent decline in transport equipment (aircraft in May, car in April) weighs on the trend," within Customs.

"Aérodépendance"

Important position in sales abroad, but very volatile, aviation fell 6.2% over the month."We had one the last two months show some" aérodépendance "of France, aerospace accounts for more than 10% of French exports and any slowdown in performance has a very significant effect on the external accounts of country, "Analysis Alberto Balboni, an economist at Xerfi easy pay day loans.

"The weakness also dominates," adds customs. To make matters worse, military exports shrink to 100 million euros. "Exports, unlike imports, have not regained their pre-crisis level (they are still below their values ​​of mid-2008), continues Alberto Balboni.More worryingly, France is among the major industrialized economies (excluding Japan), which recorded the lowest export growth after the trough of the crisis. "

Dynamism of Germany

Only exceptions to this gloomy picture, agricultural exports go, and auto sales. "Sales at their highest level since the crisis, particularly to improve the major partners of the European Union," according to customs.

France breaks the limits in general thanks to the dynamism of its European neighbors, including Belgium and especially Germany. Customs also stressed that "sales to Africa, however, are well oriented (automotive and aerospace, cereals, refined oil), like those in the Near and Middle East (aircraft)".In contrast, Asian economies, exports that had supported earlier this year, marking time.

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The numbers are staggering. In Germany, the financial damage caused by cyber crime amounted to 61.5 million euros in 2010, according to figures released Thursday by the criminal police and the Federation of high tech Bitkom. This is equivalent to an increase of 66% over the previous year. As the United States, the FBI estimated the cost of crime to some digital $ 560 million in 2009. A world-wide, according to McAfee, cyber crime would have generated some 1000 billion in 2008, about 1.64% of world GDP for that year. Remains that, without minimizing the scale of the scourge, these figures are perplexing.

Many experts give little credence to these studies because most of them emanate from computer security specialists. For the record, other than McAfee is the world number two antivirus software.In addition, "less than 10% of companies report having experienced cyber attacks," said Jean-Paul Pinte, senior lecturer in strategic intelligence at the Catholic University of Lille. According to the specialist risk management and cyber terrorists of enterprises affected societies fear the bad publicity due to media coverage of cyber attacks.

Jean-Paul Pinte, "we know nothing of the legacy and financial losses suffered indirectly." He added: "If an attack is to relieve a company of sensitive information, loss of data will generate multiple costs, such as loss of competitiveness, or the upgrading of security."

"Hard to get a comprehensive view"

Director of the National Security Information Systems (Anssi), Patrick Pailloux abounds in this direction."When a site is the victim of an attack, he takes as an example, it is first blocked, causing a shortfall. Then we must add additional costs to set up a hotline strengthened. "And on the practices of industrial espionage initiated via the Internet," How can we measure in terms of losses that a competitor could steal ?, "asks the director of Anssi. Clearly, "it is difficult to get a comprehensive view of the problem," says he.

Despite these criticisms, these figures are held up to each event on Cybercrime. However dated, the estimated one trillion dollars of McAfee is authoritative. Last May, it appeared even in the "reminder" of the fourth Parliamentary Forum on Information Society in Geneva, on the initiative, among others, the United Nations.Trompe-l'oeil, the text quoted a source stamped Europol, the pharmacy police intergovernmental European Union, which actually refers to the numbers … the software publisher.

If governments do not hesitate to chopping these impressive figures, it is often necessary to legitimize, but costly reinforcement of their agencies against digital piracy. Or clear, make the pill easier to swallow from taxpayers. In January, the UK has estimated that cyber attacks cost him a whopping 27 billion pounds per year (32.2 billion euros) in a government study.An amount (by far) greater than the harm claimed by the United States … A few days before making public figure, London has announced the release of 650 million pounds over four years to "strengthen its cyber security " guaranteed high risk personal loans…

International cooperation in the war-horse

Without waving the national figures, France is no exception, as evidenced by the announcement of piracy Bercy in March. Patrick Pailloux it was for the state to "lead by example" to encourage companies to report piracy they wipe. The Director of Anssi said that 150 computers were then infiltrated by hackers to steal documents for the French presidency of the G20. "We were able to counter the threat," he goes on, noting that thirty experts have been mobilized for two months to "clean up" more than 130,000 positions in the Department.A communication that is timely, since Anssi plans to double its workforce (360 employees) by 2013.

Such methods may be distasteful, but experts and politicians agree: there is no time to waste on the face of digital crime. "For a long time in France, we thought that hacking and computer intrusions were not really dangerous, says Jean-Paul Pinte. But now we know that it's become a real business, and that the threat can come from anywhere: a simple USB key, hard drives or even photocopiers, which, connected to the Internet can become the target of hackers ".

Therefore, international cooperation, which requires significant resources, is "a priority," insists Patrick Pailloux. And for good reason: "90% of attacks are international," says the director of Anssi.In the columns of The Tribune, Laurent Wauquiez, Minister for European Affairs, recently recalled that a hacker "can be installed in Latvia, while in France to intervene through a Canadian site." He even considers urgent that Europe adopts "a kind of cyber-FBI-backed Europol" to stem the digital crime. And one last statistic to shoot, ensuring that "a user of thirty lost money in Europe over the last year" due to a hacker.

Businesses, prey selection

Having surveyed 45 U.S. companies in 2010, the Ponemon Institute found that on average, the financial damage caused by hackers and data theft was $ 3.8 million.Like that of McAfee, this figure is to be taken lightly, as though Ponemon shows his independence, his study was commissioned by ArcSight, a specialist in digital security. However, it appears that large groups are increasingly being targeted by hackers. Since the beginning of the year, the list of companies or institutions that have suffered cyberattacks has continued to grow. Sony has suffered more than ten attacks since mid-April, leading to theft of confidential data of more than 1 million customer accounts. Recently, Sega has had the same misfortune: the editor of the series of Sonic hedgehog found in mid-June have been stolen names, email addresses, birth dates and passwords of almost 1.3 million customers on its servers.Google or Citigroup also suffered cyber attacks.

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He is a former President of EDF, which says: "the time of abundant and cheap energy is gone forever," regardless of the source also of production (nuclear, coal, renewable …). This trend is very concrete bed on the customer bill. For the sixth consecutive year, the electricity tariff increase for individuals this July 1. The increase, announced last April by François Fillon, was 2.9%, add up and sees the increase in regulated prices (+1.2%) and social contribution to the utility of the electricity (+1.7%).

Never turned off, the debate on electricity prices could go back with a vengeance. Because it is now the law comes into force Nome (for "new market for electricity"), a text adopted last December to boost competition in France.It provides EDF sells – at a competitive price – a part of its production to its nuclear rival and then market it themselves to their customers. The law, presented as a revolution for the French market for energy, should have an impact on household bills on the rise … (see below).

Consumer associations do not took off against the past and future inflation. And not just the base rate which is spoken more often. They also stigmatize the progression of other line items to the consumer, usually taxes which EDF is primarily a collector.The social contribution to public service electricity (CSPE), to finance the development of renewable energy is particularly concerned.

Constable sector, the Commission for Energy Regulation (CRE), notes that the increase of the CSPE is "a reflection of reality": "between the development of PV, even if it has been streamlined , and the planned offshore wind, the grant of these industries will weigh on consumers sustainably. "

35% cheaper than in Europe

EDF does not underestimate the different foci of controversy. But hammers another reality, "the debates on the amount of rates must not forget that thanks to its nuclear fleet, EDF has an electricity about 35% cheaper than in other European countries," explains Philippe Monloubou the Director of the electrician trade.

Price is not the only subject of debate.The complexity and therefore the lack of transparency perceived by customers, is another. "In a market open to competition, it is desirable to improve the readability of the invoices," encourages the CRE. The extension of the smart meter Linky – now being considered by the government after the experimental phase – could bring more serious. "The electricity bill will not be established on the basis of an estimate but on actual consumption. This will avoid many problems ", says Philippe Monloubou.

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Pressure is mounting on the management of Air France-KLM. 144 MPs from all sides have signed the petition launched by Bernard Carayon, UMP deputy from the Tarn, to encourage Air France Airbus to focus on as part of a mégacommande of long-haul aircraft. Tuesday, Pierre Lellouche, Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, has announced its intention to meet with Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, the CEO of Air France-KLM to seek "explanations" about its intentions to purchase. The meeting should take place this afternoon.

For the government, bad foreign trade figures – which has grown to more than 7 billion euros in April – have sounded like a severe reprimand. Especially for companies with the state is a shareholder. Air France-KLM, it has "15%" of capital.Pierre Lellouche, but considers that the company can "pass the buck" in a state that has "greatly helped" the group "when he had problems with Brussels." A similar call to order the respondent last week at PSA Peugeot Citroën, after the revelation of its possible plans to close two plants in France. PSA is not a public company, but it has benefited from state funds during the crisis.

Strategic choice

Political pressure put on Air France is a measure of the challenge: a mégacommande – the first made jointly by Air France and KLM – a hundred long-haul aircraft. The project is described as historic by the leaders of Air France-KLM themselves: it should be in the tens of billions of dollars. The verdict of the direction the company should have to fall soon after the general meeting in early July.Now, executives of Air France-KLM believe that the announcement will probably be delayed for several weeks, "the time that the discussions become less passionate."

Internally, the political turn taken by the case shocks. Bernard Pedamon, the representative of the pilots on the board of directors of Air France said he was "surprised and displeased." "These are the strategic choices that can be for an airline. It is a commitment for twenty years which must respond to economic considerations, he says. Currently, we are witnessing the return of our old demons. The days when you could bring in managers office at the head of the company or impose choices of planes is a bygone era. "

At present, the weight of the two aircraft manufacturers in the fleet of the company is not the same lights.On all its long-haul aircraft, Air France Boeing totaled 63, 35 against Airbus. The company has indeed bought many Boeing 777-300 at a time when Airbus had no equivalent model. However, all of its medium-haul (ie 153 units) are Airbus.

The controversy of recent days is all the more surprising that for several months, officials of the fleet of Air France have expressed their intention to mix Airbus A350 and Boeing 787. "The case studied by our team for the purchase of these devices are not made on a corner table," said an executive of the company."We look at many criteria: the choice of engines, maintenance costs, the impact on our maintenance business …" considerations rather far from campaign issues.

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A precarious balance. France counted at 1 January 199,987 doctors in regular activity (that is without counting the 9903 replacement), including 193 828 in Montreal, according to the annual edition of the Atlas of medical demography, which publishes Tuesday the National Council of the Order. This figure confirms the stability observed in recent years (- 0.03% in 2010). Staff remains at record levels, after decades of uninterrupted growth: the "medics" were almost twice as many in the late 1970s. However, the reasons for concern have not disappeared.

First, density declined medical (306.7 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants, against 308.8 last year), given the increase in population. Then, the distribution of physicians in the territory remains very uneven.The ranking remains the same, and better-off regions (PACA, Ile-de-France) have 1.5 times more doctors than poorer (Picardie, Centre, Haute-Normandie). Without even counting the differences within each region, between the university towns where young people came willingly to the end of their studies, and rural and suburban areas, where medical deserts are often already a reality. Finally, doctors are aging. Their average age is from 50 to 51.4 years between 2009 and 2010. The more than 55 years represent 42.9% of the troops. The decline in the number of doctors, long predicted, seems more inevitable than ever.

The College of Physicians also alarmed by the low proportion of young doctors who choose private practice: only 9.4% of new entrants this year – and again this proportion does mark a slight rebound.When it comes to choosing the salaried GPs (industry, medical schools, nursing homes, health centers …), these are all people who do not provide the guards at night or weekends easy to get unsecured personal loans.

Paperwork, time and risk of heavy patronage

To dig this, the College surveyed the few young volunteers for private medicine. One third of the 1211 Facility of the Year responded. First lesson: they are couples and 86% have children in two-thirds of cases. This shows the difficulty to consider any measure forcing them to settle in a particular place in the territory, if there are no jobs available for spouses and whether local services (supermarkets, post office and especially school) have closed.Second lesson: surprise, 95% of them are satisfied, fairly satisfied or very satisfied with their performance! They chose the liberal model for three main reasons: 'independence', "the privileged contact with the patient base, and autonomy in the" time management ". Finally, 86% of them "would recommend to a young colleague in private practice exercise.

This enthusiasm does not fall under multiple constraints: paperwork of any kind, strained relationships with Medicare, complexity of management accounting requirements of the patients (drugs, investigations, work stoppages) that grow in "cronyism "…

These same words – and those same ailments – emerge from the second thematic survey conducted this year by the College: the 903 doctors who have "loosened their plate" before the retirement age were also interviewed, and a third responded.They complain, moreover, the "financial burden" and especially "business volume" too high "not compatible with family life." To escape, they pursue their activities at the hospital, salaried or revert replacements.

Telecommuting to the rescue of employees with children. The latest barometer of the Observatory of parenthood published this Friday, parents, employees expect more flexibility from their business to help reconcile work and family life. One third of them even 35% of managers would like in particular that their employer encourages telecommuting. It is the measure within the daily organization they would most like to see implemented before the observance of simple rules such as the lack of meetings late at night, or the creation of family leave.

Companies seem to have gotten the message. They are more likely to offer their employees the opportunity to work from home. Microsoft, Oracle, Renault, EDF or Alcatel-Lucent, have recently concluded agreements encouraging the practice.Even the public service there is, indeed long overdue. Before signing an agreement last January, Secretary of State for Public Georges Tron still lamented that only 1% of state employees working remotely.

20% of employees teleworking in Northern Europe

More generally, 16% of parents surveyed employees say they can already regularly work from home, against just 10% two years ago, he stresses the barometer. In Paris, this proportion rises to 26%. The latest figures published on the subject by the Center for Strategic Analysis revealed a rate of employees teleworking slightly lower at 7% in 2009. In this game, France is lagging behind: in northern Europe, this proportion rises to 20%.

Because employees are not the only ones to win.A study by the National Agency for the Improvement of Working Conditions (NAALC) in March highlighted the many benefits of telecommuting for the employer. According to Denis Berard, in charge of the NAALC, the productivity of employees off from 20% to 30% in this configuration. Less fatigue related to transport, more motivation due to increased autonomy, boost the efficiency of employees. One way, however, reduce property costs and build up a reputation for ecological and social cheaply, said Anact.

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According to data from Bercy to parliamentarians and Le Figaro has bought, the tax shield has cost an initial estimate, 591 million euros to the state in 2010. These are provisional figures. They help identify trends. First observation, the cost of the device does not seem to slip between 2009 and 2010. At the same time last year, Bercy had estimated the cost of the shield to 586 million for 2009 (the final bill was $ 678 million).

The typology of 14,443 beneficiaries of the shield in 2010 – those whose taxes in 2009 exceeded 50% of their income – is classic. 47% of beneficiaries with low incomes (less than 3467 euros per year). These poor owners are reimbursed for their property taxes. These limited reimbursements accounted for 3% of the cost of the shield.

The 925 households with incomes over 44,980 euros per year and a heritage than 16.5 million have captured 60% of the cost of the shield. The tax paid them an average of 381,000 euros. Without shield, their tax would have been confiscatory. That is why the end of the shield will be accompanied by a reduction of the ISF.

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Union leaders had expected that the 1 May 2011 be a little raw, especially as "holiday character this time is less assertive, that day falls on a Sunday, is Marcel Grignard, number two of the CFDT.

"We do not have to be in the streets" to celebrate International Labour Day, said Sunday the first secretary of Lille Martine Aubry PS parades scattered about, saying that employees would demonstrate "in 2012 in vote. "Between 700 people, police said, and a thousand, according to organizers, marched on Sunday in Lille.

In Marseille, among 2000 people by 5000 according to police and organizers, marched through the rus, between 2200 and 3000 in Bordeaux between 1200 and 3000 in Strasbourg, only a few hundred at the start of the procession in Rennes.

It was also shown to Pau (800 to 1200), in Angoulême (500), Besancon (500 to 1000), Brest (250 to 300), Nancy (700 people according to the unions).

Winks comedy peppered some processions. "May 1st, we are the popes of the earth", alluding to the beatification of John Paul II fast cash without a hassle.But also slogans in opposition to the FN, as in Rennes' French workers, immigrants, same bosses, same battles. "

A trade union unity crumbled

The protesters "are certainly fewer than we hoped," regretted Francois Chereque on Europe 1 (CFDT). Especially as the bargaining unit has somewhat disintegrated.

In Paris, Bernard Thibault (CGT) and Francois Chereque, in particular, will head behind the streamer head of the procession, which is just after 14:00 waver from Republic Square to join one of the nation.

The CFTC did not join the call unit but leaves the task to militants to carry out local initiatives, while the CFE-CGC stays away this May 1.

Workers Power is as usual alone.In Paris, however, that they were 300, according to AFP, to march through eastern Paris, the Bastille to the Place Gambetta, before going to bow to the wall of Federated.

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The most powerful earthquake which claimed the north-eastern Japan early this morning could have caused "considerable damage," said government spokesman. He has an impact on the Japanese economy. In fact, air transport and railways have stopped Friday in much of Japan. Traffic was suspended in the major airport of the archipelago, at Narita, in the Tokyo area and buildings were evacuated. As for the Shinkansen express trains they were immediately arrested throughout the northeast of the archipelago, and highways in the Tokyo area were closed a few minutes after the earthquake.

In addition, fires devastated the country. NPP Onagawa is currently engulfed in flames.If no radioactive leak was found, but the Government has said nuclear emergency, which activates when radioactive leak or failure of the cooling system of a reactor. The four nuclear power plants closest to the epicenter of the earthquake have been closed on them without problem, provided the IAEA on Friday. A refinery run by the Japanese company Cosmo Oil, Iichihara in the Tokyo area, is also on fire. Ten other fires were reported in the capital.

In Tokyo, about 380 km away, the skyscrapers built on special earthquake resistant structures, have pitched very long after the earthquake that lasted for more than two minutes.And in the business district Ginza, thousands of residents and employees were still massed in the streets over an hour and a half after the earthquake, fearing aftershocks.

Reactions in financial markets

Immediately after the announcement of the earthquake, the Japanese currency fell against all the eight major currencies. The Japanese currency is thus dropped to a low of two weeks against the dollar at 83.30 yen to the dollar and 114.98 yen per euro. Similarly, in markets, the reaction was immediate. With just a quarter of an hour before the close of trading when the earthquake was felt, the Nikkei has accelerated its losses.

But it is too early to assess the magnitude of the economic consequences of the disaster. Whole sectors may be destroyed by unpredictable effects.Example, during the earthquake that struck Japan in 2007, only the destruction of facilities of the automotive RIKEN paralyzed the entire vehicle production in the country. In the absence of manufacturing parts for transmissions and piston rings, specialty subcontractor destroyed, Toyota was forced to suspend its entire production in the archipelago and Nissan, reduce his. In addition, during the January 1995 earthquake in Kobe, most of the damage resulted from the rupture of gas lines and not the building collapse.

This earthquake of magnitude 7.2 caused damage estimated at nearly 75 billion euros, or nearly 5% of GDP. Almost one million households have experienced disruptions of gas lines and 2.6 were without power. Tens of thousands of roads were damaged.

But since this major earthquake, seismic standards were strengthened, providing for the systematic study of resistance and strengthening the walls by metal rods. Hopefully this new infrastructure will have mitigated the balance sheet, both human and material.

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