The king of the foreign exchange market is losing its supremacy.The dollar, already eroded by the successive plans and massive injections of liquidity into the markets by the Fed to support the economy of the first power of the world crumbles at full speed: everyone sulking the greenback, while the scenario of a failure to pay the United States, powered by the impasse between Democrats and Republicans on increasing the amount of the debt of the federal state could be realized.
If the financial world does not seem to want to believe in a U.S. bankruptcy – the consequences for the global economy would be "very, very, very serious," according to Christine Lagarde at the IMF – is growing concern as the rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's head, threatening more and more seriously degrade the note of the long-term debt of the United States, currently at AAA – the highest rating possible."This fear that the U.S. lowered rating is increasingly based," said Andrea Tueni, market analyst at Saxo Bank. Combined with poor economic data, especially on the face of real estate and employment falling for several weeks across the Atlantic, such news would further loosen the dollar "as investors are less likely to buy bonds U.S. long-term because they are less safe and more expensive, "said the specialist.
The euro could rate to about $ 1.50 without the Greek case
Faced with a dollar that loses value, the other major currencies, they, climbing mechanically. This rise is not seen on the exchange rate euro / dollar as the euro, too, was abused by his sovereign debt issues."The Greek case far from over, the German finance minister has even admitted today that Europe will still have to meet to resolve the European crisis. This weighs on the euro, "argues Andrea Tueni.
So on Wednesday, the euro it suffers more the situation in Europe as the dollar is disadvantaged by the issue of U.S. debt, the euro yield 1% against the dollar at 1.4369 dollar. But yesterday, the euro was trading more than 1.45 dollars, registering an increase of almost 1%. "Right now, the problem Greek counterbalancing about the American problem, so that the euro / dollar remains relatively stable. Without the Greek case, the euro could move above $ 1.45 even reach $ 1.47, "predicts analyst.
The Swiss franc at record high
But for the other major currencies, the effect of the dollar's decline is palpable.Especially for currency called "safe haven" to which those investors are turning in uncertainty and fear when the market gains. As the yen or Swiss francs. Indeed, Japan is concerned that the yen is so strong: for a dollar, you are under 78 yen. Unheard of. In Switzerland, the situation is unprecedented: the Swiss franc is the highest in its history against the dollar, which fell to 0.7996 Swiss francs on Wednesday.
Such inflation of the currencies directly threatens the economies concerned, particularly exporters. In Switzerland, the economic research he expected slower economic growth in Switzerland over the coming months, corroborating the analysis of the ETH Zurich. The prospect of Swiss GDP growth for 2011 was reduced by the Ministry of Economy to 1.5% against 1.9% expected earlier.What revive the theme of the currency war.
Countries react to contain the surge of their currency
A new central bank intervention Swiss and Japanese is possible. How? By buying dollars to turn back the greenback, and therefore, lower than their money. This is precisely what would have done on Wednesday India's central bank, the agency Dow Jones, which is to prevent the rise of the rupee, at its highest in 35 months against the dollar. Other Asian Institutions designated having exercised the same operation in recent days.
Brazil's real has not been as strong since 1999 (at 1.53 reals to the dollar), when the country began to make its currency fluctuate. Since the beginning of the year, the Brazilian currency has appreciated by 8.08% vis-à-vis the dollar.In 2010, the real had appreciated 4.6% against the dollar and 32.7% in 2009 after falling 23.17% in 2008, the year of the global financial crisis. This outbreak is explained partly by the decline of the dollar, but especially the effects of "carry trade" that make the real rising: investors are the difference in interest rates between the United States from 0 to 0.25%, and Brazil, more than 12%. On Wednesday, the Brazilian government announced the strengthening of control and taxes – up to 25% – on the derivatives market. "I think that this measure will be less profitable speculation, and I hope it will bring down the real," said Guido Mantega, Brazilian Minister of Finance.
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