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At least two lean years ahead of world trade. After the 5% increase in volume recorded in 2011, already far removed from 13.8% in 2010, the growth of international trade in goods and services will fall 3.7% this year, predicts the World Trade Organization (WTO).

This slowdown shows that "downside risks remain high and that we are not out of the woods," warns its director general, Pascal Lamy. It reflects not only the crisis in the eurozone, where the risks of recession are not excluded, but the consequences of the tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand, which disrupted production chains across Asia.

Even in China growth stalled. The World Bank has revised its forecast for Thursday GDP growth (GDP) of 8.4% to 8.2% this year. And if HSBC says the country will "rank among the top ten global markets by 2050," the bank regrets that "consumption is slow" and that "external demand remains weak."

However, it is developing countries that should benefit most from world trade in 2012, with exports and imports respectively up 5.6% and 6.2%, against 2% and 1.9% for developed countries . But the WTO, who hopes a recovery in the economy of the United States and Japan, fears and weaknesses of Europe too much of a rise in commodity prices.

"Trade restrictions"

The Geneva-based organization is little more optimistic for 2013. Although it contains the growth of international trade will rise to 5 installment payday loans.6%, with growth of 7.2% of exports of developing countries and 4.1% in developed countries. At the same time imports are projected to increase by 7.8% and 3.9% respectively. But this is little more than the 5.4% average annual increase recorded over the last twenty years. No room for complacency.

And it is certainly not sufficient to preclude the temptations of nationalism from a number of countries and the risks of a return to a more or less creeping protectionism. Pascal Lamy sees no protests yet openly declared. But he fears that "trade restrictions" appear and are "undermining the benefits of openness" in international trade. It is imperative "to revitalize the trading system to prevent such a scenario happens," pleads the Director General of the World Trade Organization.

Yet it was precisely the mission that had set the negotiations on the Doha round to liberalize world trade up. Unfortunately, begun in 2001, they are still deadlocked. And increasingly threatened by the proliferation of free trade agreements signed over the world without the WTO.

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Small revolution in the OJD, which is one step closer to seeing his measures of attendance on the Internet more recognized by the market. In its ranking of websites in March, the body that certifies the mailing of printed and digital press titles in France is hosting for the first time the orange.fr portal, one of the earliest in the hexagon with Google, Yahoo! and MSN.

Gateway to the telecom operator arrives directly at the head of the most popular sites last month, with over 450 million visits. The OJD measure all connections to the site (the "site-centric"), that is to say the number of visits and page views, without deduplicate visits on the same site by the same user. "We do not say in front of a screen but we certify the figures reported by the sites, which are the comprehensive measure of attendance," explained Stephane Bodier Bartement and Patrick, President and CEO of OJD. With the exception of Marianne, VOD or Humanity, all brand sites releases are already certified by the OJD.

Qualify hearings

The organization hopes that this will arrive in others, notably those of Yahoo! and MSN, which should seek, also, to certify their attendance. Google, which has developed its own measurement tool, Google Analytics, for its part could choose to stay out of the movement.

But there on the market another way of measuring the digital world personal business card. This is the tool with its Médiamétrie NetRatings ("user-centric") which, by observing a panel of 25,000 Internet users, to qualify (age, occupational status, etc..). The challenge now is to combine the best of both measures. Médiamétrie and OJD announced in early March signed an agreement for the supply by the second to the first of its basic results "site-centric." This merger of the two measures should allow the hearings to describe and measure, for example, the loyalty of Internet sites. It will materialize in June, with the publication of results by Médiamétrie Internet audience in April, via a hybrid measure that integrates both data and those of OJD, but also on the results of websites measured by Médiamétrie-eStat and certified by the OJD. "This agreement will help provide a market-based results more accurate and consistent," said Médiamétrie.

In the longer term, it will find tools to accompany the rise of advertising offers Web-coupled television. Médiamétrie talks with Google for the establishment of a study that would bring together data from television audience of those with Médiamat Internet.

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During the crisis, tensions continue. The markets had another busy day, Thursday: doubts about the ability of the euro area to overcome the debt crisis have sealed the shares. They weighed on bonds issued by France and Spain led to a further surge in rates especially Spanish and Italian in the secondary market – the debt of "opportunity." The French rate also rose, to a lesser extent, before new Italian bond purchases by the ECB do a general relaxation.

European capitals are still struggling to unite, despite these new turbulence. Or because of them. Thus, the debate on the role of the European Central Bank it off again with a vengeance payday loans.The ECB's independence is considered an insuperable line in a country that is traumatized by hyperinflation of the 1930s. For Berlin, the only way to restore confidence in the euro area is to institutionalize fiscal discipline. Changes in the European treaties must strengthen the powers of Brussels to punish offenders, said Angela Merkel.

The Chancellor reiterated Thursday its opposition to further action by the ECB. "The European treaties such as we see them do not give the ECB the opportunity to resolve these problems," she says.

Asian stock markets will end the week on a positive note. In the wake of Wall Street closed higher on Thursday, the markets have also welcomed the decision by central bankers from the richer countries to mobilize to prevent the drying up of banks' liquidity in dollars. Thus, the European Central Bank (ECB), with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan has reopened its facilities dollar loans to European institutions in three months, at their request. The Nikkei gained 1.93% to 8836.10 as well.

The IMF, like the ECB through its president Jean-Claude Trichet welcomed the unity of central bankers to the crisis: he stressed that it was more necessary than ever for world leaders to unite to prevent a recession that should spare "person."This will reassure investors, who until now did not cease to spread their fears about a bankruptcy in Greece, coupled with sluggish growth prospects on both sides of the Atlantic.

However, brokers in Asia fear that this improvement is short-lived. "The coordinated central bank takes the market today," noted Toshiyuki Kanayama, broker at Monex, Japan, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires. But this does not solve the problem of the euro area should have a temporary effect. "

Bank stocks and exporters in progress

At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, banking stocks and exporters popped up then. Toyota wins and 1.75% to 2737 yen, Honda 2.27% to 2447 yen.The same goes for banks, Sumitomo rising by 3.39% to 2166 yen, as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (4.24% to 244 yen).

Other places are also Asian financirèes in the green. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 2.14% to 19,591.93 points, the Kospi Index in Seoul was up 3.56% to 1837.22 points, the S & P / ASX 200 index in Sydney rose by 1.81% to 4145.20 points, the BSE Sensex index in Mumbai was up 0.96% to 17,039.30 points and the FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index rose 1.35% to 2803.25 points.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro kept most of the gains made the previous day. The European currency was worth 1.3848 dollars and 106.31 yen Friday morning in Tokyo, down slightly compared to 1.3882 dollar and 106.40 yen the night before in New York.Similarly, the oil price displayed in a small increase in morning trading in Asia, a barrel of "light sweet crude" earned 5 cents to 89.45 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea 14 cents to 112 , $ 44. "This liquidity will likely prevent the recession to hit the euro area, supporting crude oil prices," said Victoire Shum, an analyst at Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

Giving the trend of the European market yearlings, Deauville sales start today. For four days, 478 thoroughbred yearling will be auctioned in the ring establishment Elie de Brignac, located opposite the racecourse The Touques and completely renovated. Of these, 340 were born in France and "income" and therefore qualified for the bonus to the owner, in addition to the allowances paid if they win or place in racing gallop in France. The origin of most of England and Ireland, but also from Germany and some of United States.

After the disappointment registered last year (down 17% the average price of yearlings), the farmers hope that the market will recover. But the economy remains sluggish in Europe, Eric Hoyeau, president of Arqana, organizer of sales, remains cautious."Our goal is a slight increase compared to revenues in 2010, which was 29.3 million euros."

In the spring, some 2,000 yearlings were in the running. After examination of their pedigree, about 1000 were selected. Then, the teams toured Arqana stud farms to examine their model, their appearance, their health … In the end, they were divided between the two sales held in Deauville in August (the most prestigious) and October ."More balanced, combining quality and diversity, the 2011 catalog of the sale of August is an excellent year," said Eric Hoyeau.

Children of champions

No less than 114 stallions are represented, with a large battalion of son and daughters of very large foreign-based sires such as Danehill Dancer, Galileo, Dylan Thomas (35 000 euros per project), Duke of Marmalade (40 000 ) or Montjeu Dalakhani, father of Reliable Man, winner of last June's Prix du Jockey-Club.

Their children could burn the auction.For large investors or their representatives (brokers, coaches) from around the world (Britain, Ireland, Japan, USA …) on the Normandy coast, arriving with the hope to get your hands on foals or fillies may, at the age of three years, winning such prestigious races as the Prix du Jockey-Club, Diana, the Epsom Derby or the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

But it would be very surprising that the sales record, established in 2002, beaten. At the time, Sheik Mohammed al-Maktoum did not hesitate to pay 2 million euros to buy the filly Vimy Ridge.

Owner of the Godolphin Stable, one of the largest in the world, the emir of Dubai buys yearlings in the world, like its brethren its re Sheikh Hamdan.Last year, their absence on the Normandy coast, because of Ramadan, and the discretion of their representatives were the main causes of the fall (- 28%) of revenues from sales of Deauville.

Although lagged ten days, sales fall again this year in the period of the Muslim religious festival. But the interest of Australian investors and Eastern Europe, including Russia, not to mention the strong French customer, could surprise on the upside.

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The Paris Bourse remained hesitant on Tuesday. The CAC 40, which had closed up yesterday, was down 0.25% to 3230.90 points. The Paris index was pressed into the red at the opening, losing 0.73% after the release of German GDP is very disappointing. Deutsche Börse also accused the coup, the Dax closed down 0.45%, limiting losses after falling 2.40% to 5877.91 points. In London, the FTSE-100 index of the core values ​​ends up slightly from 0.13% to 5357.63 points after losing 1.13% during the session. The other European financial centers have also reduced their losses late in the day: the Madrid Stock Exchange lost 0.4% and finally to Milan 0.8%.

The markets were reassured by the announcement of the Fitch rating of the United States. The rating agency remains in effect its "AAA" together with a stable outlook.But caution prevails before the summit between Sarkozy and Merkel spent on the economic governance of the euro area. Combined these on global markets, all eyes will be on the Elysee Palace in Paris to take place a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, to improve governance in the euro area . The two leaders will meet from 16 hours and hold a press conference around 18:30.

Investors already know that he must not expect miracles, especially not that the two largest economies in the euro zone agreed to set up Euro-bonds, which would be financially harmful to Berlin."Do not expect anything dramatic" at the end of the meeting Monday said a spokesman for Angela Merkel, that "people expect once again a spectacular blow." It should only be to continue discussions on the governance of the euro area, following decisions taken by Heads of State and Government of the European end of July.

Operators still expect progress on this issue. "If nothing is announced, it will mean that there is a deep rift between Paris and Berlin markets can get excited again," warned Yves Marc, sales of shares in Global Equities.

Meanwhile, Asian markets set the tone with very mixed sessions, followed by Wall Street that opened in the red. Oil down with a barrel of "light sweet crude" that is losing 45 cents to 87.43 dollars and that of Brent crude, which gives 42 cents to 109.49 dollars.Sign of nervousness room, gold is up, quoting around 1775.50 dollars against 1744 dollars the day before closing in New York.

German growth slows

The Franco-German summit is further expected that the disappointing figures were published today in the euro area. Germany has announced a particularly sharp slowdown in growth in the second quarter. German gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the first, where he still displayed an increase of 1.3%.

In addition to the sharp slowdown in the German economy, the Gross Domestic Products (GDP), Spanish and Dutch have in fact suffered a similar fate over the same period, rising by only 0.2%, respectively, and 0.1%, amid debt crisis.

Economic growth also slowed in the second quarter in the euro area, 0.2% from 0.8% in the first quarter, according to data released Tuesday by the EU statistics office Eurostat. However, the euro area recorded a trade surplus of 900 million euros in June, after a surplus of 200 million in May.

United States, markets were also disappointed by the figures for housing starts, down 1.5% in July. The number of building permits has meanwhile Contracted 3.2%. However, industrial production increased more than expected in July, 0.9%, according to the Federal Reserve, with the automotive sector and the heat wave that has boosted the use of air conditioners and therefore electricity consumption .Finally, import prices have rebounded from their side, while export declined.

Values ​​to follow

On the corporate side, the news is much thinner. Bank stocks are again suivies.Sous pressure before meeting Sarkozy, Merkel, they recovered late in the session: BNP Paribas lost 0.07% to 37.5 euros, Natixis (-1.64% to 3.063 euros) and AXA (-0.18% to 11.22 euros). Societe Generale gained 1.92% to end 25.275 euros and Credit Agricole advance of 0.68% to 6.781 euros.

GDF Suez (-2.20% to 20.44 euros) is added to the list of preferred values ​​of UBS.

EADS (-0.95% to 21.80 euros): Russian Transaero airline will buy 12 Airbus A320. Qantas has in turn announced the purchase of 110 Airbus A320s and the deferral of delivery of six Airbus A380 jumbo jets.

After the storm that plunged all the stock exchanges, the European stock exchanges succeed they stay in the green on Thursday? In Paris, after opening up 2.96% to 3092.16 points, the CAC 40 went back down just before noon and sank below the threshold of 3000 points, already briefly reached Tuesday. At midday, the index yields 0.69% in Paris 2983.16 points. A drop accelerating since even at 14 hours, he drops 2.40%, weighed down again by the bank stocks. In Frankfurt, the Dax is in the green at 5688.28 points, up 1.33%. The FTSE-100 index of London Stock Exchange is reluctant, for his part. He found the balance to 5011.65 points after spending a few minutes in the red.

The concerns are far from being dissipated, particularly those relating to the slowdown in the global economy and the issue of sovereign debt on both sides of the Atlantic.The overwhelming investor nervousness could therefore persist while no major indicator is the program on Thursday.

Wednesday, the markets were shaken by rumors of a deterioration in the rating of France, immediately denied by the rating agencies and the French government, and concerns about the health of the bank Societe Generale. And the CAC 40 plunged 5.45%, narrowly escaping the psychological threshold of 3000 points to 3002.99 points. Other European markets have suffered the same drop Frankfurt dropped 5.13%, 3.05% London. Madrid and Milan 5.49% 6.65%. In New York, the Dow fell 4.62% and 4.09% for the Nasdaq. However, on Thursday, appeasement was back on the Asian stock markets that are returned to the green or showed moderate declines.

Societe Generale attacked again

Gold continues, meanwhile, fly from record to record.The precious metal has crossed the threshold of 1800 dollars. It is this Thursday morning in 1790 dollars, after hitting a new record of 1815.50 dollars. However, oil resumed its decline in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

Among the values ​​to be followed, the bank that have been heavily tested yesterday. The Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the stock market regulator, announced that it will monitor developments in the securities sector.Shortly before noon, BNP Paribas (-5.88% to 33.515 euros), and Credit Agricole (-1.51% to 5.981 euros) and plunged into the red after yet open on a rebound.

The title is particularly battered Societe Generale: having lost 14.74% Wednesday, it opened on a rebound of almost 9%. But again plunges 4.13% to 21.265 euros."The willingness of these attacks is to force the SG to a capital increase, which is the workhorse of some analysts and hedge funds in recent months," said an analyst based in Paris at the agency Reuters. "Their reasoning is that the group does not generate enough capital to cope with the capital ratio of over 9% in 2013." The bank, already shaken in 2008 by the Kerviel affair, only to find the investor confidence after several warnings about its results during the financial crisis.

For its part, the CEO of the bank, Frédéric Oudéa, denounced, in an interview with Le Figaro, "the series of attacks" against the French banking sector "sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, attacked Societe Generale, "he lamented. "We have no fear about our ability to raise capital," he added.SocGen has asked the AMF to investigate the origin of the rumors that have depressed its course Wednesday.

Veolia Environnement (4.61% to 10.55 euros) and STMicroelectronics (3.39% to 4.488 euros), especially titles attacked in recent days, return to the field.

In addition, EADS (1.66% to 20.24 euros), the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday it will not achieve its objectives in the United States in 2020 without new acquisitions.

Title Alcatel-Lucent (2.11% to 2.324 euros) is expected to rise following the release of quarterly results from Cisco Systems, above the consensus of Wall Street.

L'Oreal (2.29% to 1.73 euros) should benefit from the decision by Goldman Sachs, which added its list of preferred European stocks to buy ("pan-Europe conviction buy list").

Saint-Gobain (1.11% to 31.775 euros) has announced the acquisition of Solar Gard, a subsidiary of Belgian group dedicated to Bekaert Specialty Films, as part of its strategy to accelerate its growth through acquisitions.

Maurel & Prom rose 4.22% to 12.35 euros after opening up over 8%. The oil company reported a surge of 123% of its revenue thanks to increased revenues in Gabon and Nigeria.

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Professionals of the solar French looked forward to these provisions since the beginning of the year. Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet for Le Figaro reveals new rules for large installations in excess of 100 kilowatts peak (kWp) more than 1000 m2 of photovoltaic panels. They go through a series of tender whose final details were refereed this weekend at Matignon.

The aim, says "NKM", is to stimulate the development of a photovoltaic technology made in France. "The previous system (with the purchase price of photovoltaic electricity by EDF very favorable, Ed) favored the volume and price. The companies have made in the technology standards. "The new scheme aims to develop innovative technologies on which high yield" French companies are well positioned, "says the Minister of Ecology."We have not developed industrial mass on the first series of panels, but we're not trying to go after China and Germany. We are planning the next move, "says NKM.

Now all the facilities of over 1000 m2 will be tender. With two categories. For installations "average" (from 1000 to 2500 m2), the specifications will be simplified, and the main criterion for selection will remain the price. In other words, the candidate who offers the current EDF cheapest wins. A first batch of 120 MWp is to be published on 1 August, in the opinion of the Commission for Energy Regulation (CRE) expected July 26. Follow the quarterly on six 30 MWp each. These volumes will cover two and a half years "to give visibility to the industry," said Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet.And guarantee of "credibility" of the device – but also clear political signal – the first competition the candidates will be selected before the presidential election.

The second category of calls for tender for the large facilities of more than 2500 m2 and covers a total capacity of 450MWc (read the cons detail below). In addition to the price that will account for 40% of the notes will weigh other criteria: the industrial project, the research contribution and the environment. Example cited by NKM: solar power projects on a brownfield or a former quarry will be clearly favored over a planned plant on agricultural land. Also new candidates must provide guarantees of recycling and decommissioning of their plants at the end of their life cycle.Through these tenders, the government wants to promote technologies such as still emerging mobile mirrors that track the sun throughout the day.

Professionals expressed particularly through the union of renewable energy (RES) denounced the ceiling of 500 MWp per year announced in March for the entire industry. This is not a ceiling but a target, insists on the ministry. Which will be passed this year, since, already, for the first quarter alone, 300 MW were installed, as announced in Le Figaro NKM July 5.

Objective achieved Grenelle

Added to 973 MWp installed in late 2010, according to the Charpin report, the objective of 1100 cumulative MWp for 2012 set by the Grenelle of the environment is already exceeded. "There was no halt in the industry," insists Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, supporting figures.However, the minister understands that "the successive changes of the frame, every six months since 2008, have been penalized. But this period is over, "says she.

Meanwhile, the gel three months declared photovoltaic systems weakened in December of SMEs and forced some to put the key under the door. Even if individuals were not affected by the moratorium, nor by lower prices, the market has slowed, we are assured the SER. For some SMEs, between the moratorium in December 2010 and the response to tenders in the spring of 2012, eighteen months without activity have been fatal. Of the 25,000 jobs in the sector, the Ministry states that the workforce in research (8200) should increase. The remaining jobs (16,700 in the installation and consulting firms) are subject to "adjustments" but should also benefit from the new framework.

"I want to make a new pact of trust with the photovoltaic industry," says Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet. Professionals to respond.

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On the international trade front, France patina. For the second time in two months, the trade deficit hit a bad record in May, -7.422 billion euros, according to figures released Thursday by the Customs. Year over year, he moved to -63.418 billion euros, against -51.558 billion in 2010.

The poor sales in May due in large part by higher energy bills in France, reflecting a rebound in imports of natural hydrocarbons. Imports, burdened by this trend, amounting to 41.601 billion euros in May, up 2.9% over three months. This figure was moderated by the slowdown of industrial imports.This, "due to lower aircraft and naval acquisitions and a decline in purchases of electronic equipment and pharmaceuticals, 'the customs.

At the same time, "industrial exports sag again," they note. Result, exports grew by only 0.9% over the last three months to reach 34.179 billion euros in May "The persistent decline in transport equipment (aircraft in May, car in April) weighs on the trend," within Customs.

"Aérodépendance"

Important position in sales abroad, but very volatile, aviation fell 6.2% over the month."We had one the last two months show some" aérodépendance "of France, aerospace accounts for more than 10% of French exports and any slowdown in performance has a very significant effect on the external accounts of country, "Analysis Alberto Balboni, an economist at Xerfi easy pay day loans.

"The weakness also dominates," adds customs. To make matters worse, military exports shrink to 100 million euros. "Exports, unlike imports, have not regained their pre-crisis level (they are still below their values ​​of mid-2008), continues Alberto Balboni.More worryingly, France is among the major industrialized economies (excluding Japan), which recorded the lowest export growth after the trough of the crisis. "

Dynamism of Germany

Only exceptions to this gloomy picture, agricultural exports go, and auto sales. "Sales at their highest level since the crisis, particularly to improve the major partners of the European Union," according to customs.

France breaks the limits in general thanks to the dynamism of its European neighbors, including Belgium and especially Germany. Customs also stressed that "sales to Africa, however, are well oriented (automotive and aerospace, cereals, refined oil), like those in the Near and Middle East (aircraft)".In contrast, Asian economies, exports that had supported earlier this year, marking time.

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The stock markets in the Asia-Pacific move in a disorganized Wednesday. In Japan, the Nikkei index briefly topped the 10,000 points before returning to settle at 9996.70 points, a slight increase of 0.24% to 7 hours. The Topix index, wider, taking 0.15% to 866.49 points. Japan will carry out "stress tests" on all its nuclear plants to recheck their safety after the accident Fukushima, said on Wednesday the Minister of Economy, Banri Kaieda, quoted by agencies Jiji Press and Kyodo.

The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, it loses 0.40% to 22,657.70 points while the Shanghai Stock Exchange drops 0.71% to 3100.18 points, weighed down by banking stocks: Bank of China falling 2.52% and China Construction Bank down 3.37%.The Singapore sovereign fund Temasek Holdings wants to raise $ 3.67 billion by selling stakes in these banks.

In India, the BSE timidly advance of 0.20% at 18,782 points. The World Bank said Tuesday it had granted a loan of one billion dollars to India to finance the economic and social development in rural areas of the country.

And Australia, the S & P / ASX takes 0.26% to 4610 points. The low cost carrier Tiger Airways Australia, pinned down by Australian civil aviation safety issues, stopped selling tickets Wednesday after a interventioon of competition authorities pay day loan lenders. Tiger Airways Australia, subsidiary of Singapore's Tiger Airways, itself a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines, was banned from flying Saturday by the authorities of civil aviation in Australia (CASA) because of an "imminent and serious risk for aviation safety. "In Singapore, the Straits Times Index gained 0.14% to 3134.04 points.

So, without much conviction, the markets seem to have forgotten to take the sharp deterioration intoaccount, four notches by Moody's, the rating of the long-term debt of Portugal, who raises fears of contagion from the Greek case other peripheral countries of the euro area.

The sustained rise in oil

Oil prices were on the upside Wednesday in electronic trading in Asia, driven by renewed optimism about the U.S. economy. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August took 22 cents to 97.11 dollars.That of Brent North Sea crude for delivery gained 18 cents to equal 113.79 dollars.

Tuesday, oil prices rose significantly in New York, like other commodities such as gold and silver which were taken away by the momentum of last week after a long weekend States USA.